How Low Can the Unemployment Rate Go?

The current U.S. unemployment rate has been decreasing for over the last nine years. This has some asking, “How low can the unemployment rate go?” The best insight into this question may come from considering economic theory, analyzing historical trends, and tracking Federal Reserve policy.

Virginia Named Top State for Business 2019

Virginia has been chosen as America’s Top State for Business this year by CNBC. Chris Chmura, CEO and Chief Economist here at Chmura Economics & Analytics, was interviewed about the decision. The following video features excerpts from that interview.

Chmura Recession Monitor Through June 2019: 35%

Economic growth in the United States has generally been modest to moderate since the recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2009. After increasing at a 4.2% annual rate in the 2nd quarter of 2018, real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the 3rd quarter as growth in consumer spending remained strong and a healthy contribution to growth from change in private inventories offset a subtraction from trade. Due to the 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 in December and the narrowing yield spread, the probability of recession jumped to 35% through June 2019.

Trade War and Chinese Currency Devaluation

Since President Trump took office, trade policy has been an essential component of his overall economic agenda, in addition to tax cuts and regulatory changes. After passing the tax cut legislation in 2017, the administration started implementing major changes to trade policies in 2018 with goals of reducing the U.S. trade deficit and generating jobs in America. For example, the administration re-negotiated the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada (USMCA Agreement) to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).