Chmura has created a COVID-19 Economic Vulnerability Index, developed by Dr. Chris Chmura and Dr. Xiaobing Shuai. The index gauges the negative impact the COVID-19 crisis can have on jobs in a region based upon the industries present in the area and their expected job losses. Accommodation and food services, for example, are projected to lose more jobs as a result of the coronavirus compared to utilities and healthcare.
Annual average wage growth in the Richmond metro area and the state has lagged that of the nation from 2010, the year after the recession ended, through 2018, the latest full year of data.
Economic Impact: Political polls, like economic forecasts, can vary greatly depending on assumptions
Predicting economic growth and the outcome of elections have something in common: Both rely on assumptions. Similarly, the results of political polls vary greatly depending on the assumptions the pollsters make. Poll respondents should reflect the demographic makeup of the population, but that almost never happens. So pollsters should weigh the sample results of their survey to reflect reality.
What a difference a year makes. Chmura Economics & Analytics is forecasting slower U.S. growth in the gross domestic product and in employment. GDP growth should increase 1.9% in 2020, compared with 2.3% growth last year. Employment growth should be 1.1% this year compared with 1.5% in 2019. We expect employment growth in the state and Richmond metro area to be about the same as the nation in 2020.
Modern Monetary Theory postulates that countries such as the U.S. that issue their own currencies can simply issue more money to avoid the crowding-out problem.